MLB Tuesday, May 29,2007

Yesterday: 1-1-1, -0.17 Units
YTD: 1-1-1, -0.17 Units

i'll be at the dodger game tonight, w/ a friend and long-time dodger homer, approximately 8 rows back on the visitor side to see Penny pitch...should be fun as he tries to rebound from 2 outings ago...more importantly, i will be looking for a specific italian-american in the stands (or on the field) to get a picture w/ like these doushebags did somehow...

either way, today's hot card is Atlanta (Smoltz) @ Milwaukee (Sheets)...the total is 7.5 -110, so it has the potential to go over, but who knows, so no play...the key to picking out the strange lines is understanding what information the house is presenting to u...

in two situations, we have a star pitcher facing mediocre teams at best, David Wells (SD) @ Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny) and Dontrelle Willis (FLA) @ Chicago Cubs (Marquis)...both lines have the home teams favored though at ML -135, which seems fishy...

it seems very odd to have almost an extra 40% vig for Pittsburgh and the Cubs to win...Wells pitched a gem last time out and San Diego is 8-2 in its last 10...they are 10-4 vs. the Central while Pitt is 4-6 in its last 10 and 2-5 vs. the West, yet Pittsburgh is somehow favored...

the Marlins are searching for their 5th win in a row, w/ their horse on the hill, yet are underdogs??...i pulled these stats from CBS Sportsline about Dontrelle and his excellence in Wrigley..."Willis (6-3, 4.80 ERA) is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA in five road starts this season, and has been even more impressive in his career at Wrigley Field, going 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA in five starts."

the details go on and on about the Cubs' woes at home and Marquis' recent losing streak...these lines dont make sense and i'm pouncing on them...they make it way too appealing to bet on San Diego and Florida, but i'm not biting...i'm taking the ugly favorites of:

Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny) ML -135 for 1 Unit, pitchers must go,

and Chicago Cubs (Marquis) ML -135 for 1 Unit, pitchers must go...